Robotics are the new frontier of rare earths demand
From one of the smallest end-use segments today led by industrial and consumer service robots, we forecast that robotics will grow to become the single largest NdFeB demand driver by 2040 on the back of soaring growth in professional service robot production for manufacturing, hospitality, transportation and logistics sectors.
From one of the smallest segments today to the single largest by 2040
From one of the smallest end-use segments today led by industrial and consumer service robots, we forecast that robotics will grow to become the single largest NdFeB demand driver by 2040 on the back of soaring growth in professional service robot production for manufacturing, hospitality, transportation and logistics sectors.
A not-too-distant future in which the robot population surpasses that of humans
By the 2040s, Tesla CEO Elon Musk projects there will be 1 billion humanoid robots operational on Earth. David Holz, the founder of artificial intelligence lab Midjourney, agrees with Musk but himself foresees growth to 100 billion humanoid robots in operation by the 2060s, mostly operating in outer space.
Bold long-term prognostications aside, we are unquestionably today at the outset of commercial-scale humanoid robot production and deployment, akin to 2010 when major automakers and startups alike were months away from starting mass production.
And with the launch of the Tesla Model S in 2012, and hundreds of other EV models since, the market has until recently grown faster than any reputable forecasts of the day projected, including our own. Taking heed of this observation, and similar takeaways from early solar and wind market forecasts, it is easy to understand how Musk, Holz and others can fathom a not-too-distant future where the robot population surpasses that of humans.
Towards that end, in June 2024, BMW Group announced the successful testing of humanoid robots at its Spartanburg plant. “The developments in the field of robotics are very promising. With an early test operation, we are now determining possible applications for humanoid robots in production. We want to accompany this technology from development to industrialization,” it announced.
More recently, in August 2024, Chinese startup Agibot announced the start of mass production at its humanoid robot plant in Shanghai. Production is targeted to hit 100 units per month by November, rising thereafter.
Also a potentially massive addressable market for humanoid robots for residential and/or household applications
While potential applications for industrial robots in manufacturing, hospitality, transportation and logistics sectors are vast over the medium- to long-term, particularly in light of projected labor shortages and aging populations, there is also a potentially massive addressable market for humanoid robots for residential and/or household applications.
Chinese securities broker, Great Wall Securities (“GS”), expects the number of humanoid robots for household services to reach 0.11 units per 100 households globally in 2035, or 0.46 units per 100 households in an optimistic scenario.
In relation to the projections of Musk, Holz, GS and others, we are confident that our own projections err responsibly on the conservative side given the early juncture of this market, but at the same time we are mindful of the explosive, unexpected growth that EV, wind and solar markets experienced, and how humanoid robots may follow the trend. In any case – move over EVs, robotics are poised to be the new frontier of magnet demand over the medium- to long-term.
For more info on the outlook for rare earths, NdFeB magnets, robotics, and much more, refer to our latest Rare Earth Magnet Market Outlook to 2040 report.
