New Report: Rare Earth Magnet Market Outlook to 2040
Adamas Intelligence is thrilled to announce the publication of its latest Rare Earth Magnet Market Outlook to 2040 annual report
This report is a must-have resource for rare earth miners, processors, metal and magnet makers, parts manufacturers, OEMs and any other organization with a professional interest in the mine-to-application market.
The industry’s go-to reference for magnet market intelligence
Following a 1.8% drop in global consumption of NdFeB magnets in 2022 on the back of global economic headwinds and pandemic-related challenges, Adamas Intelligence data indicates that global consumption rose 13.3% last year, propped up by strong demand for electric vehicle traction motors, wind power generators, and automotive micromotors, sensors and speakers.
Looking forward, from 2024 through 2040 we forecast that global demand for NdFeB magnets will increase at a CAGR of 8.7%, bolstered by double-digit growth for robotics, advanced air mobility and electric vehicle sectors, translating to comparable demand growth for the critical rare earth elements (i.e., didymium, dysprosium and terbium) these magnets contain.
Over the same period, we forecast that global production of didymium, dysprosium and terbium (the so-called magnet rare earths) will collectively increase at a slower CAGR of 5.1% as the supply side of the market increasingly struggles to keep up with rapidly growing demand.
In this report, we provide a detailed overview of the global NdFeB alloy, powder, magnet, metal and magnet rare earth oxide markets, including a breakdown of historical production, consumption and prices from 2015 through 2023. Next, we unravel the anticipated near-term evolution of this increasingly dynamic value chain and forecast global supply, demand and prices from 2024 through 2040 under three distinct scenarios.
Among the findings of our analysis:
Market for magnet rare earth oxides to increase five-fold by 2040:
With total magnet rare earth oxide consumption forecasted to increase at a CAGR of 5.4% (versus a higher 8.2% for demand) and prices projected to increase at CAGRs of 4.3% to 5.2% over the same period, Adamas Intelligence forecasts that the value of global magnet rare earth oxide consumption will increase more than five-fold by 2040, from US $7.8 billion this year to US $44.1 billion by 2040.
Robotics to become largest global demand driver by 2040:
From a small demand category today led by industrial and consumer service robots, we forecast that robotics will grow to become the single largest NdFeB demand driver by 2040 on the back of soaring growth in professional service robot production for manufacturing, hospitality, transportation and logistics sectors.
Advanced air mobility to help lift global demand to new heights:
Similarly, from a nascent demand category today led by recreational, and to a lesser extent commercial, drones, we forecast that advanced air mobility will grow to become one of the largest NdFeB demand drivers by 2040, led by rapidly growing production of electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing aircraft for transportation and delivery sectors.
Availability of magnets to become a long-demand constraint:
Between 2030 and 2040, we see potential for supply shortages of NdFeB magnets, constrained by increasingly tight availability of upstream rare earth feedstocks, to become a major limitation for robotics, advanced air mobility, electric vehicle and other end-user sectors.
Aggressive supply increases needed post-2030:
For China alone to close the growing supply gap projected between 2027 and 2040 will require annual production at Bayan Obo to increase nearly five-fold, massively depleting the country’s reserves. Conversely, for ex-China suppliers to close the growing supply gap will require the development of another 20 to 30 modest-scale mines by 2040, over and above those already expected to be developed in our Base Case scenario.
Contact the Adamas team for more information about our Rare Earth intelligence services.
