Rare Earth Magnet Market Outlook to 2040
The industry’s go-to reference for magnet market intelligence
Published: Q3 2024
Following a 1.8% drop in global consumption of NdFeB magnets in 2022 on the back of global economic headwinds and pandemic-related challenges, Adamas Intelligence data indicates that global consumption rose 13.3% last year, propped up by strong demand for electric vehicle traction motors, wind power generators, and automotive micromotors, sensors and speakers.
Looking forward, from 2024 through 2040 we forecast that global demand for NdFeB magnets will increase at a CAGR of 8.7%, bolstered by double-digit growth for robotics, advanced air mobility and electric vehicle sectors, translating to comparable demand growth for the critical rare earth elements (i.e., didymium, dysprosium and terbium) these magnets contain.
Over the same period, we forecast that global production of didymium, dysprosium and terbium (the so-called magnet rare earths) will collectively increase at a slower CAGR of 5.1% as the supply side of the market increasingly struggles to keep up with rapidly growing demand.
In this report, we provide a detailed overview of the global NdFeB alloy, powder, magnet, metal and magnet rare earth oxide markets, including a breakdown of historical production, consumption and prices from 2015 through 2023. Next, we unravel the anticipated near-term evolution of this increasingly dynamic value chain and forecast global supply, demand and prices from 2024 through 2040 under three distinct scenarios.
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"From a small demand category today led by industrial and consumer service robots, we forecast that robotics will grow to become the single largest NdFeB demand driver by 2040 on the back of soaring growth in professional service robot production for manufacturing, hospitality, transportation and logistics sectors."Adamas Intelligence
“Similarly, from a nascent demand category today led by recreational, and to a lesser extent commercial, drones, we forecast that advanced air mobility will grow to become one of the largest NdFeB demand drivers by 2040, led by rapidly growing production of electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing aircraft for transportation and delivery sectors.”Adamas Intelligence
“Between 2030 and 2040, we see potential for supply shortages of NdFeB magnets, constrained by increasingly tight availability of upstream rare earth feedstocks, to become a major limitation for robotics, advanced air mobility, electric vehicle and other end-user sectors.”Adamas Intelligence
“For China alone to close the growing supply gap projected between 2027 and 2040 will require annual production at Bayan Obo to increase nearly five-fold, massively depleting the country’s reserves."Adamas Intelligence
